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The crucial point still hasn't been addressed

Posted By: Francis Salmon
Date: 1 Jan 12, 3:30 am

In Response To: We concur. (Flash)

There is obviously nothing wrong with Cougfan's argument but the question remains how betting all at once in a -1.4%EV game like Craps can give a better chance of survival than betting in portions at BJ with roughly +2%EV.
I wonder why nobody questioned the 58.8% ruin figure for BJ.It seems illogical because even if you bet all at once the chance of losing is much closer to 50%.
Statistically, on average, Inquiry must win 2 dollars with every bet he places. I don't see how this equation can be met if he loses his 1000 dollars in 58.8% of the cases and doubles them in only 41.2% of the cases. Who can resolve the mistery?

Francis Salmon

Messages In This Thread

• 2D S17,DOA,DAS,RAS 70%Pen -- Inquiry -- 23 Dec 11, 4:41 am
  • Risk of Ruin is 58.8% -- Dog Hand -- 24 Dec 11, 11:12 am
    • Thanks! -- Inquiry -- 24 Dec 11, 2:35 pm
    • Mistake -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Jan 12, 5:13 pm
  • 41.2% (nt) -- Flash -- 24 Dec 11, 11:30 am
    • 41.2% chance of doubling bankroll. (nt) -- Flash -- 24 Dec 11, 11:33 am
      • Thanks! -- Inquiry -- 24 Dec 11, 2:43 pm
        • You could dramatically improve your chances of doubling the $1,000 -- Cougfan -- 28 Dec 11, 4:00 pm
          • Very Incorrect. -- Flash -- 28 Dec 11, 11:23 pm
            • 99.3%???? maybe you mean 49.3% (nt) -- Panama Rick -- 29 Dec 11, 6:28 am
              • my typo. YES it is 49.3% (nt) -- Flash -- 29 Dec 11, 12:13 pm
            • Flash - How is my answer incorrect? -- Cougfan -- 29 Dec 11, 11:57 am
              • explanation: -- Flash -- 29 Dec 11, 12:17 pm
              • you are incorrect because ... -- Flash -- 29 Dec 11, 12:22 pm
                • I think you are misreading my post -- Cougfan -- 29 Dec 11, 12:46 pm
                  • We concur. -- Flash -- 29 Dec 11, 12:57 pm
                    • The crucial point still hasn't been addressed -- Francis Salmon -- 1 Jan 12, 3:30 am
                      • See my "Mistake" post, above (nt) -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Jan 12, 5:13 pm

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