As the title says, I've been wondering if playing a 17 versus a 10 at a monstrous true count is actually the better play in the long term ? Say the TC is 10+... ? Is it worth even playing a 17 versus a 10 at that point?? Surely there must be some calculations on this if the indice for surrendering 13 versus a 10 at a +8 exists.
Extremely close at +12. Gronbog makes it +13 in his graphs. It's what we give on page 23 of our book.
Don
It's likely that +13 is more accurate. Searching through my files, I also found LS 17v9 (+13) and LS 17v8 (+22). Maybe we also have a difference of +1.
Sincerely,
Cac
Hi, I asked you this question in another thread. Forgive me for asking this again. It’s about the 16vsT HiLo deviation index for the Hit/Stand decision.
I play mostly games with the surrender option, in which I surrender almost all 2-card 16vsT hands; therefore, I do not need a hit/stand index for these 2-card 16vsT hands. However, I really need one for 3 or more-card 16vsT hands. Could you help calculate the index for this situation?
Thank you in advance!
If the games you play have the option of late surrender, you simply surrender if the TC is greater than or equal to '-3' (Hi-Lo). If such an option doesn't exist, then you stand with a TC of '0' or more. However, if the game is with late surrender, and your 16 consists of 3 or more cards, you simply stand using the index of '0'.
Hope this helps.
Sincerely,
Cac
Very good! It could be better if you also give a number with one decimal place.
Last year, I simulated the situation using Phil’s blackjack-hack simulator and found a Hit/Stand index of TC=+1 for the 3 or more-card 16vsT hand. However, I am still not sure if this simulation result is reliable or not.
Very good! It could be better if you also give a number with one decimal place.
Last year, I simulated the situation using Phil’s blackjack-hack simulator and found a Hit/Stand index of TC=+1 for the 3 or more-card 16vsT hand. However, I am still not sure if this simulation result is reliable or not.
I don't remember what we did. We would have had to do 2 simulation runs (multiple times for each) with surrender on, and your counting, betting, and playing strategy with an index of 0 in one run and an index of 1 in another run. And then compare the 16 v. 10 results and overall results in the tables that are kept.
I am usually running with surrender off and Zen count and end up seeing an index of 1 to be very slightly preferable to an index of 0. But the simulator doesn't show separate outcome data for 2 card 16s and 3 card or more 16s.
Phil
This is how I did the simulations with your blackjack-hack. I always used a 6-deck s17 game with 75% penetration for HiLo. When the surrender option is available, the Hit/Stand HiLo deviation index is for the 3 or more-card 16vsT because all 2-card 16vsT hands were surrendered; when the surrender option is unavailable, it is for both 2-card and multiple-card 16vsT hands. All 2-card hands count for about 50% of the total 16vsT hands.
What I found from your simulator is that the Hit/Stand index for 16vsT is TC=+1, not TC=+0, and the result is consistent for both surrender and non-surrender games. This is the part I’m not so confident about, because I expected to see a difference but haven’t. I would like to run more simulations to resolve this concern.
This is how I did the simulations with your blackjack-hack. I always used a 6-deck s17 game with 75% penetration for HiLo. When the surrender option is available, the Hit/Stand HiLo deviation index is for the 3 or more-card 16vsT because all 2-card 16vsT hands were surrendered; when the surrender option is unavailable, it is for both 2-card and multiple-card 16vsT hands. All 2-card hands count for about 50% of the total 16vsT hands.
What I found from your simulator is that the Hit/Stand index for 16vsT is TC=+1, not TC=+0, and the result is consistent for both surrender and non-surrender games. This is the part I’m not so confident about, because I expected to see a difference but haven’t. I would like to run more simulations to resolve this concern.
How did you determine hit/stand index to be 1, was it because the 16 v. 10 results table showed better results at a true count of 1 than 0? I think looking at that or the overall results would be the only way to determine this.
Phil
I’d like to look into this again soon. If I recall correctly, I investigated both results, the overall won amount and the 16vsT detailed result list.
